Like It or Not, Vista Will Dominate
I’ve been seeing and hearing too much about how Microsoft is about to fall, how Vista will be its sad, melancholy swan song, how companies with better intentions and pure hearts will take over the scene. The blogosphere is rife with commentary like this. You’d think that between the Mac and Ubuntu Linux, there’s barely any hope for Microsoft.
It’s bullshit. All of it.
As flawed as Vista might be, and as much grief as it gets for its long, painful, sometimes embarrassing road to RTM, it will be the de facto destkop operating system quicker than you can possibly imagine. Even Ovum, an industry analyst, predicts the Vista adoption rate will trump that of Windows XP, making Vista the fastest growing operating system ever.
David Mitchell, who works for the marketing research firm Ovum, Ltd., believes that not only will Vista be a sales success for Microsoft, but that that as many as 15 percent of the computing world will be running some form of Vista within its first year of availability. This would make Vista the “fastest-moving operating system ever,” according to Mitchell, surpassing the previous champion, Windows XP, which had 12 to 14 percent of Windows users switching within 12 months.
I’m a Mac guy, but I’m messing with Vista more and more, and it’s not bad. It’s a huge step up from XP, even if it is rough in some spots still. Certain things, like the simple-but-useful breadcrumb bar in Windows Explorer, make using the OS a pleasure, especially when compared to XP. I can see why Scoble said that it’s frustrating to move back to XP once you’ve tried Vista — and he said that back in March 2006, when Vista wasn’t nearly as polished. I’m sure I’m getting a better experience now.
I still think Mac OSX Tiger provides a considerably better “OS experience,” and I think the Leopard will be truly amazing and outshine Vista in almost every area once we know exactly what it will offer (we only have a partial list now). That’s my two cents until I see otherwise.
But most people — most people being defined as average Joe and Jane Sixpack — won’t care. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: average users don’t give their OS much thought at all. To them, the PC is all about the applications, because applications == tools to perform tasks. They don’t care if their GUI is OpenGL- or DX-accelerated, whether their kernel is built on FreeBSD, or what new filesystem enhancements help keep their data safe and orderly. They just want their apps to work, period.
The bottom line is that for most people, Vista equals Windows, and most people know Windows. They use Windows at work, their friends and families use Windows, and the computer vendor of their choice pre-installs Windows and offers no other choice for the most part. Other OS options — including Mac OSX and Linux — are fringe ideas adopted by either the tech elite/luminaries or nerdball hobbyists. Either way, the OS market remains largely unchanged.
One more time: the OS market remains largely unchanged.
Don’t get me wrong: I think Apple will do very well and continue to grow marketshare, and from a technical leadership perspective, I think OSX will stay ahead of Vista for the foreseeable future. I think the Mac is an amazing platform and offers benefits for those willing to tackle the learning curve and un-learn some Windows-centric behaviors, and it never ceases to amaze me that when I read about another hot tech up-and-comer, he or she almost always uses a Mac.
Nevermind all of that, because the market is already Vista’s to take.
Microsoft and Vista aren’t doomed, so let’s do away with pretending that they are.
EDIT: Hey look — Owen Thomas from Business 2.0 magazine pretty much agrees with me. — Jeff
I haven’t EVER heard ANYONE actually suggest there is “no hope for Vista.” What I have seen is increasing evidence that Microsoft is out of touch with what customers want.
Consumers didn’t rush out to buy XP, it just showed up on new PCs that were bought. The fact that new PCs replace old ones after two years means that new versions of Windows rapidly replace old ones.
Microsoft is significantly raising the price of Vista over XP, giving users and OEMs new reasons to look at options just the first real alternatives to the Monoploy are appearing.
“Rapid” in the PC world isn’t as rapid as Mac OS X updates, where users actaully upgrade existing machines. Compare the rollout of Tiger to the speed of XP. The only reason Vista will beat XP is because there are more PCs being sold today than a half decade ago.
You also say that Windows isn’t changing, when it very much is. Moving to Vista is just as much work as moving to Tiger or Ubuntu. Vista just offers less for the same amount of migration.
You’re right that people just want things to work, and don’t care about what makes it work. That’s why they use Windows now. Windows is cheap. That’s changing. Windows is not only more expensive, but increasingly annoying with its “call home and see if your copy is geniune” verifications.
There are other reasons why Vista is looking unappealing – I presented some in a Leopard vs. Vista series at roughlydrafted:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/Q4.06/18839BF9-5098-460A-8276-39CC96170D6E.html
Microsoft tends to be the purveyor of complicated and increasingly complex operating systems and products. Take Vista for instance it offers 4 or 5 different versions… the Zune is another piece that is seriously out of touch. Apple on the other hand creates simpler products that I believe are appealing to a greater number of people. Hence the iPod market share.
In addition to a world class operating system that vastly improves with each new release – Apple now allows their customers to run Windows on the Mac Hardware but Microsoft will license only the most expensive version to run in Apple’s Bootcamp or similar software.
What is Microsoft’s problem? I believe their complicated corporate personality is out of touch with real consumers and they rely to heavily on the fact that people just buy Windows and Windows Boxes! They also I believe feel threatened by the leadership of Apple and feel they have to regain some misplaced form of dignity. In reaction they randomly launch competitor products. Owell
Will they ever change? Who knows!
danieleran — thanks for your comments. I dig your blog.
I haven’t read anything that literally said “there is no hope for Vista,” but I have read my fair share of pundits saying that Vista is a trainwreck, it represents the end of the line for MS operating systems as we know them, it was doomed from the start and in the corporate world. Overall, the public sentiment — or, more accurately, *pundit* sentiment is pretty negative.
You make a very good point in saying that a possible explanation for faster Vista adoption is that dramatically more PCs are being sold now (thanks low-margin commoditization!) than were when XP hit the streets.
I don’t agree that moving to Vista requires as much migration work as moving to OSX or some Linux distro. By and large, a user’s apps still work, the documents and data still seamlessly plug into the parent app, and usage metaphors are the same, albeit retouched and tweaked.
With Mac or Linux, you have to learn different applications (not to mention buy them), keystrokes, menu structures, option panels, shortcut keys, and GUI nuances. That’s a bigger part of migration and learning-curve-tackling that Vista will ever represent.
You make another good point in saying that the cost of Windows — something traditionally cheap and almost transparent — is rising, and the WGA crap will also further blemish Windows’ old transparency to the end user. It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out.
Thanks for your comments.
Oh, last thing: I *totally* agree that with Apple technology, people rush in droves to get the latest, because the latest (a) provides tangible new value, and (b) operations tend to get quicker, not slower, as Apple has been quite good at code optimization.
OK, I’m done.
gabrielspence — I agree with you wholeheartedly that MS thinks more options = good while totally ignoring the fact that most users find complexity paralyzing. Joel on Software recently had a great piece on how too many choice boggle minds and ultimately get in the way of software function.
Deep in Microsoft’s heart, they know they’re failing to innovate. The similarities between OSX and Vista on several levels are quite evident, and Microsoft’s pursuits in the search and digital music player markets further illustrate that point.
Still, because of the boxmakers, because of the average Joe users who tolerate, not enjoy, computers, Windows (Vista) is here to stay, and it will dominate the market. You and I might not use it, but the vast majority will.
Can you link us a credible source that states MS is about to fall or lose desktop market? I don’t think even hard core Mac/Linux users think this…
I suspect that the deployment of Vista will be slow but sure, but no, Microsoft is not going to lose much market share with this one.
None of my comments say anything about the quality of the product, but I’m not sure quality is all that relevant here. People will implement Vista just as they have XP before it because it’s Microsoft and behind it is the marketing machinery of MS. Inertia.
The enterprise will also eventually go, albeit slowly. There will come a point where new systems running Vista will come in the door, regardless of what IT says. Most companies have MS products too well embedded in their corporation to migrate to another OS, whether Mac OSX or one of the flavors of UNIX/Linux. It’s too hard to do, even as challenging as it will be for IT departments to migrate to Vista.
They’ll pony up the money, because they’ll see no other way.
Once again, it has nothing to do with quality.
I’m a consultant and FileMaker database developer, and I work primarily in the Windows network environment. Stuff works, but it requires a heck of a lot of support and time. I’ve owned Macintosh laptops for many years, and continue to buy them because they also work, and I don’t have to deal with all the myriad of viruses and malware that infect the Windows world.
gemmy — through Vista’s road to RTM, there were many pundits, some of whom are very staunchly pro-MS, calling Vista a trainwreck, writing very lukewarm reviews and wondering how the Vista team go so lost along the way.
Even Mini-Microsoft details the lack of cohesion in the Vista team, the infighting, the corporate politics that inhibited the development process.
If you haven’t seen any of this over the last 6-12 months, you haven’t been looking very hard.
The point of my post is that I disagree with those sentiments.
Neal — I agree with you on the corporate angle. In fact, if I remember correctly, Gartner previously recommended that corporations shouldn’t upgrade to Vista until around 2008, which is about 18 or so months from now, which is about how long a new OS needs for testing and application compatibility testing.
Link.
You nailed the core reason Vista will succeed, and it has nothing to do with technological superiority: intertia. Windows is in motion and it will stay that way, no matter how romatic the Mac or Linux world-domination dreams are.
Me? I prefer Macs all day long and twice on Sunday, but I’m not your average Joe technology consumer, and neither are you. But the Joes are out there, and I’m sure you see them aplenty in your consulting business.
Thanks for your comments; much appreciated.
I think everyone knows that Vista will be the next big thing, there’s little doubt. And while I’m sure Apple is going to make yet another interesting OS, as long as they stand behind their outdated proprietary business model their sales will continue to be center around schools, the uninformed and the ever rabid and closed-minded Apple fanboys of the world.
I’m looking at the specs that Vista needs. Why all the power? Is there any need at all for fast processing in the home PC? Aren’t we just heading toward the PC as a $50 Linux Internet Node that is made out of recycled car tires a Fanta bottle and a few heaps of FairTrade sahara sand? Isn’t Vista just pushing the envelope to make the envelope bigger?
I’m not buying that rubbish, Grrrrr. I spent the weekend freeing my PC from Spyware/malware/clunky PC crap and I’m going with any other OS but Microsoft for now on.
Sam — the main needs for Vista are: RAM and a strong GPU (at least if you want to run Aero Glass, which is very nice and I highly recommend it). The reqs are steep, but I suspect they’ll come DOWN after a while and MS optimizes some code. Just like Apple’s OSX always seems to “get faster” with each release on the same computer: there’s code profiling and optimization going on.
As for the hardware market, well, Moore’s law dominates. Computing power continues to grow (relatively) unabated, so that’s just the nature of the best.
I like Vista so far. I like it a lot, and I think it’s a huge step up from XP. Huge. Will I dump OSX for it? No, but I probably will dual-boot and have the best of both worlds.
#2 with google search as:
“strong will to dominate”,
I made my savings throw a long time ago. Is it a high resistance, I guess, or my ego is not so low.
More b.s. Until the Vista team eliminates the need for reactivation everytime a damn driver or software update is made, Vista will remain a dead fish.
This old post of your came up on my page as a result of my most recent post yesterday. You should check mine out, as it may be an interesting perspective for you- albeit same topic years later! To this day I know so many are disgruntled w/ Vista…..but not me.